Osama Bin Laden has been eliminated. Pakistanis argue sovereignty issues while neglecting the internal help that has kept OBL alive and well all these years.
The timing of the hunt and the quick disposal of the body triggers a lot of questions. There are two major premises/assumptions that I am going to base my explanations on.
a. OBL was alive
1. The Americans come along and say you help us to fight OBL. Pakistans asks the US what they would get in return. Long string of negotiations follow and a long term aid package is announce and ratified by congress
2. Pakistanis start realizing the aid in terms of arms, ammunitions fighters etc. Feel good factor - world sees in Pakistan an ally in the war against terror. Pakistan sees a different problem - a world where OBL has been eliminated - and their aid dwindling
3. They have to find OBL and lock him up. ISI was issued the task of walking into the war zone and get Osama safely over to Pakistan. They have to commended for the secrecy with which they carried out their tasks.
4. Means used by ISI may be one of benevolence, coercion, a false hope of regrouping etc. But OBL bought their lies or was kidnapped by the ISI to safety. They put him up where no one expected him and where no one would dare launch a strike - in an army cantonment.
5. Pakistan gets caught with its pants down. US attacks and kills OBL.
b. OBL was dead (or so thought most within ISI, Army, govt of Pakistan)
1. The Americans come along and say you help us to fight OBL. Pakistans asks the US what they would get in return. Long string of negotiations follow and a long term aid package is announce and ratified by congress
2. Bush goes after OBL. Bombs the caves of Afghanistan. Kills/Captures OBL in one of the raids. OBLs friends swear revenge on the US, but don't want to out the news that would disrupt the Jihad. ISI digs out facts, but is asked not to reveal anything.
3. For reasons known only to Uncle Bush, they want the war to go on (capitalism - more bombs, more armour, more money. War is good for business). Meanwhile ties with India grow at the expense of Pakistan, 123 nuclear deal etc get signed
4. US Economy crumbles. Elections happen and Obama comes to power. He asks the CIA chief where OBL is hiding and why have they not been able to nail him. CIA says that they already have nailed him - shows him the photos/video of OBL. Obama says - keep him safe, he is our ticket out of this war and also my ace for winning the next elections
5. Indo-US strategic ties peak. US economy is unable to afford the war. President Obama has an election to win - against record unemployed and inflation. He calls his army and CIA guys.
6. He tells them - take OBL and his family and put them in a house in abottabad. Create a scene that looks like OBLs been killed by the heroic US Navy Seals. They have a technical hitch, blow up one chopper. Say stories about throwing the body into the sea (which is so far off for any helicopter to reach)
7. Paksitan really unaware of CIAs plan. Genuinely not knowing how OBL could have ended up in Abottabad - but unable to forgive itself for not telling the world about OBLs capture/killing years ago. They have been receiving aid and kept quite. Now they are caught with their hands in the cookie jar.
So either ways. Too many unknowns. We don't know when or how OBL was killed. He was disposed off in such a hurried fashion (compared to say, Saddam), no trace of his existence. No sea in the vicinity to drop the body - one chopper wont have the fuel/range to reach any sea based dumping point and return to dry land.
Only one thing is certain - the US wont stake its reputation in calling OBL dead, if he is still alive. Another certainty is the vigor with which American aid to Pakistan will be questioned. Interesting thing would be to see if and when American soldiers pull out of the war on terror in Af-Pak region. That will add more sense to the timing of things..
