Market photo
Predicting Behaviour
Party trick
Guessing money
Number Game
Show
Friday, December 26, 2008
Pakistan in Soup
The sole existence of the state of Pakistan has been towards countering India. Till recently, Indian policies have also been so unidimensional - which has been changing slowly. When you have such policy you are limited by your enmity. You have a reason to keep the enmity going since your source of power and control over your citizens depend on it.
After winning 3 wars and a skirmish, India has been confident and has concentrated on education and science research. Sure it is still one of the poorest countries, with majority poverty and health issues. But the positive advances in science and education will eventually get trickled down to thee poor. Do you mean the Europe in middle ages did not have any poors? As Dickens described the time of growth and change , "It was the best of time, it was worst of times" - your development should not wait for poverty to be eliminated.
Pakistan on the other hand, lacked the resources to increase and maintain its armed forces. So they trained and motivated militants to do the proxy war for them for 3 decades. This is a country where the military leadership has uprooted democracy 3 times since their independence some 60 years ago. Every time the going gets tough for the army due to soft political leadership, or they don't get enough funds for themselves, or when their authority is in question, they readily take control. There are some wild media speculation that the whole Mumbai carnage was a attempt by the army to re-assert itself. They wanted to withdraw from the western front and moved their troops to the Indian side. In other words, Pakistan is determined to start a war with India.
India has been walking a tight rope after the incident. On one hand the fuming public opinion for a strike against Pak, the other hand the Pakistan army which would readily dislodge the elected government in case of a war. Yet another facet is the US pressure to not go to war since it will affect their interests of Pakistan fighting on the Afghan border. As per Pakistani politicians, ISI director chief was supposed to travel to India, which the army quickly overruled.The Pakistani minister who was in India for the talks was airlifted/forced to leave early on a army aircraft. They has caught the chief of LeT, later they refused saying he is still at large. This lag between the fact and manufactured fiction clearly show the army pulling the strings. Meanwhile the Pakistan army has been using public hatred agaisnt India and reasserting itself with the people and the terrorists (going on for past 2-3 months). Then came the news from dear Mujahideen chief,who has been fighting with the Pakistani army all this time, that they would provide 15000 men to fight against any Indian aggression. All in all, Mr.Bush has been taken for a ride all this time - thinking Pakistan would really act against the Taliban or any terrorists. Also the links between the army and the militants are becoming clear. We Indians have been dealing Pak for quite sometime, so we know them
Another comedy that was played out was Zardari saying Pakistan wont be using nuclear devices first. Now his defense minister is repeating the same statement. Who are they kidding? they have no real power to command the army to not use the nukes! Pakistan has been arresting Indians linking them with their own bombings and asking India to close terror camps on its side - a meek act of desperation, doesn't hold any water. But one aspect is very clear - Pakistan doesn't want the military tension to subside though any diplomatic measure. They want a war at all cost. Reasons? I can think of few - their army consolidating public support and militant support, an hopeless collapsing economy, the Chinese pulling the string behind stage to stop Indian growth, etc. Indians have been very active diplomatically with all of world power, now it is reaching out to Pakistan's allies too to put pressure on Pakistan. A war may cost both India and Pakistan a lot in terms of military expenses, stock market crashes, loss of Foreign Direct Investments, possible sanctions, not to mention the risk of the conflict turning Nuclear and spreading beyond just India and Pakistan.
But I don't think it will get to that. Hope the allies (China, Iran and Saudis) talk some sense to Pakis. The change that India is asking is too great to come about in a few weeks or months - Pakistan cannot anger the very terrorists it is harboring. They bred a dangerous terror network and now would have to either dismantle it or go to war - either ways they have a major problem at hand. It is time Pakistan starts showing some responsibility as a nation - else it may have to switch sides from "War on terror" to "Axes of evil".
After winning 3 wars and a skirmish, India has been confident and has concentrated on education and science research. Sure it is still one of the poorest countries, with majority poverty and health issues. But the positive advances in science and education will eventually get trickled down to thee poor. Do you mean the Europe in middle ages did not have any poors? As Dickens described the time of growth and change , "It was the best of time, it was worst of times" - your development should not wait for poverty to be eliminated.
Pakistan on the other hand, lacked the resources to increase and maintain its armed forces. So they trained and motivated militants to do the proxy war for them for 3 decades. This is a country where the military leadership has uprooted democracy 3 times since their independence some 60 years ago. Every time the going gets tough for the army due to soft political leadership, or they don't get enough funds for themselves, or when their authority is in question, they readily take control. There are some wild media speculation that the whole Mumbai carnage was a attempt by the army to re-assert itself. They wanted to withdraw from the western front and moved their troops to the Indian side. In other words, Pakistan is determined to start a war with India.
India has been walking a tight rope after the incident. On one hand the fuming public opinion for a strike against Pak, the other hand the Pakistan army which would readily dislodge the elected government in case of a war. Yet another facet is the US pressure to not go to war since it will affect their interests of Pakistan fighting on the Afghan border. As per Pakistani politicians, ISI director chief was supposed to travel to India, which the army quickly overruled.The Pakistani minister who was in India for the talks was airlifted/forced to leave early on a army aircraft. They has caught the chief of LeT, later they refused saying he is still at large. This lag between the fact and manufactured fiction clearly show the army pulling the strings. Meanwhile the Pakistan army has been using public hatred agaisnt India and reasserting itself with the people and the terrorists (going on for past 2-3 months). Then came the news from dear Mujahideen chief,who has been fighting with the Pakistani army all this time, that they would provide 15000 men to fight against any Indian aggression. All in all, Mr.Bush has been taken for a ride all this time - thinking Pakistan would really act against the Taliban or any terrorists. Also the links between the army and the militants are becoming clear. We Indians have been dealing Pak for quite sometime, so we know them
Another comedy that was played out was Zardari saying Pakistan wont be using nuclear devices first. Now his defense minister is repeating the same statement. Who are they kidding? they have no real power to command the army to not use the nukes! Pakistan has been arresting Indians linking them with their own bombings and asking India to close terror camps on its side - a meek act of desperation, doesn't hold any water. But one aspect is very clear - Pakistan doesn't want the military tension to subside though any diplomatic measure. They want a war at all cost. Reasons? I can think of few - their army consolidating public support and militant support, an hopeless collapsing economy, the Chinese pulling the string behind stage to stop Indian growth, etc. Indians have been very active diplomatically with all of world power, now it is reaching out to Pakistan's allies too to put pressure on Pakistan. A war may cost both India and Pakistan a lot in terms of military expenses, stock market crashes, loss of Foreign Direct Investments, possible sanctions, not to mention the risk of the conflict turning Nuclear and spreading beyond just India and Pakistan.
But I don't think it will get to that. Hope the allies (China, Iran and Saudis) talk some sense to Pakis. The change that India is asking is too great to come about in a few weeks or months - Pakistan cannot anger the very terrorists it is harboring. They bred a dangerous terror network and now would have to either dismantle it or go to war - either ways they have a major problem at hand. It is time Pakistan starts showing some responsibility as a nation - else it may have to switch sides from "War on terror" to "Axes of evil".
Monday, December 22, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Test For Democrats
Democratic party of US is generally more appreciative of China than India. There are multiple instances where this trend is clearly set by many presidents. Now the recent closeness of Indo-US cooperation on the nuclear deal, weapon sales etc under the Bush administration may not be ever lasting. Obama has to be watched carefully for the next year or two to find out the true intention of US towards India.
Let us see a chain of event that happened before the Mumbai Attacks
Some things that are going shape immediate future of Indo-US relationships are the US intelligence community, US Economy and policies to correct the slump, How active China is in their diplomacy with US and how close they go to Russia. It is an increasingly multi-polar world with very complex interactions and vague and uncommitted relationships between nations. Obama is taking center stage, let us just wait and watch...
Let us see a chain of event that happened before the Mumbai Attacks
- Before the elections - Obama was talking for a finding a solution for the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan. He was so keen he has meeting with Mr Clinton to get his experience and advice on this matter
- Pakistan gets invited to a secret meeting with the Chiefs of staff to discuss about the future role they should play in the war on terror.
- After winning the elections, Obama was rightly adviced by someone that Kashmir is too hot an issue to take up immediately after taking the chair. Every single US president who thought they are going to resolve Kashmir has learnt their lesson the hard way. There is too much sentiments on both sides of the border.... not advisable if you want good relationship with India
- Zardari is so open and soft when this meeting gets over. He was for open trade and free movement of civilians - without need for passports. (You have to remember the backdrop that infiltration by militants and bombing of innocent civilians on the Indian side makes it very difficult for India to suddenly start trusting pakistan
- Zardari call the infiltrators for the first time, as "Terrorists" in sharp contract to the official Pakistani position of calling them "Freedom fighters"
- Zardari goes a step further than that and said this ""I can assure you that Pakistan will not be the first country to use [nuclear weapons against India],..". Let me get this straight. So I believe China or someone else first nukes India, only then would Pak join the fight?
- The Pakistani president should be appreciated for the open steps he is taking. But is this his idea or Uncle Sam's?. Whatever be it, I think this guy is so radical that he will be assassinated soon.
Some things that are going shape immediate future of Indo-US relationships are the US intelligence community, US Economy and policies to correct the slump, How active China is in their diplomacy with US and how close they go to Russia. It is an increasingly multi-polar world with very complex interactions and vague and uncommitted relationships between nations. Obama is taking center stage, let us just wait and watch...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
War Not An Option
War is not an option for India. We are having a golden streak of economic progress and growth (despite the global slowdown). The last thing that the Indian government would want is a war against Pakistan. So what are our options?There are at least four distinct "powers" inside the Terrorist State of Pakistan (TSP). The name-sake dummy democratic government (DDG) , the Army, the Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) and the religious extremists. Of these only two that agree with each other, occasionally, are the Army and the ISI. The Army is the most powerful of the four - it can overthrow the elected government, as it has in the past.
In the present globalized world, with so many nuclear powers, any small skirmish can potentially turn into a nuclear conflict. Especially when you ground forces are not equally matched. As any other asymmetric war, Pakistan would suffer heavier losses than India (due to our depth and numbers). Once it becomes desperate, there is no stopping them from using the Nuclear arsenal against India. But it will not - none of the conflicts we have seen after WW-II has been allowed to escalate to a nuclear war. Having nuclear capability does not serve as a deterrent against a conventional attack. With a no-first use policy of India (and recently TSP too..), I don't think a nuclear conflict is even remotely possible.
Diplomatic and international pressure on TSP
Both Uncle Sam and Chinks have spoken out against the TSP. China is tightening its borders with TSP to stop the terrorists crossing over to its territory. The Muslim militia inside China has been trained in Pakistan. Be it Uncle Bush or Uncle Obama, they are trying to find an strong ally in India. The international community should put pressure on the elected government to prove its authority. Downsize the ISI, providing the Indians with the wanted criminals they are harbouring, US should ask for usage reports of the F16s and military hardware that they have donated to TSP to fight the war on terror. And unless these things happen and we see the DDG getting some control over matters, sanctions should start on Pakistan
Asserting Intentions/Loyalties
TSP should be asked to declare its policies and success/failures in curtailing the terror outfits within its borders. There should be an international team - probably from UN - monitoring the arrests and outlawing of terror outfits. Every time the TSP outlaws an outfit, it assumes a new name and office, and continues to thrive. Pro-Islam extremists become passive fund-raisers for islamist all around the world - only to re-arm themselves. As we already discussed, there there are four distinct powers operating in TSP, loyalties are dispersed, non-existent. This would make the job very difficult in tracking of any ground results and stern anti-terror initiatives that TSP starts.
Even as a state, TSP has been opportunistic and uncommitted about its friends. It is probably the only country which is so close to China while maintaining an equally good relationship with the US. It gets international monetary and military aid from UK, US, France, Italy, UAE, China and still cribs about them in some manner. The glorious relationship between TSP and China has also been put under the Chinese microscope after findings that the Islamic militia inside China was trained by Pakistan. It is high time TSP comes out loud and clear about its association and friends. As of now the only clear policy they have is their anti-Indian mindset.
Unless they get a hold of themselves and declare their loyalties to the international community, they are going to further lose credibility, not that much of it is still left.
End of the line
UAE, China and IMF from whom TSP has been borrowing a lot of money are now denying further loans. After the recent terror attacks inside TSP hotels hospitals etc, corporates and multinationals are leaving TSP for good. Uncle is increasingly siding with India. Other major economies like Japan, Brazil, South Africa etc wont be investing much in TSP. Only undecided factor is Russia. If for some reason China and Russia decide to support TSP, which I HIGHLY doubt, then there is a fresh lease of life for these A-holes. India should convince other international players for putting new sanctions on TSP. India should prove/convince the UN bodies that the loans given are diverted to purchase of military equipments. The marketing statement of India Inc., should change from "India Shining.." to "Pakistan Stifling..".
Personally, I would like to see the current Anarchy get worse in TSP. It is a state which has failed miserably to its own crooked policies. They started with a negative "anti-India" stance. They took up to train terrorists against India, without understanding the dangers. Now those same elements have an different agenda than their state - they started killing innocent Pakistanis.
Next few weeks would be interesting - like to see if India has the political guts and inclination to for cross border raids.
In the present globalized world, with so many nuclear powers, any small skirmish can potentially turn into a nuclear conflict. Especially when you ground forces are not equally matched. As any other asymmetric war, Pakistan would suffer heavier losses than India (due to our depth and numbers). Once it becomes desperate, there is no stopping them from using the Nuclear arsenal against India. But it will not - none of the conflicts we have seen after WW-II has been allowed to escalate to a nuclear war. Having nuclear capability does not serve as a deterrent against a conventional attack. With a no-first use policy of India (and recently TSP too..), I don't think a nuclear conflict is even remotely possible.
Diplomatic and international pressure on TSP
Both Uncle Sam and Chinks have spoken out against the TSP. China is tightening its borders with TSP to stop the terrorists crossing over to its territory. The Muslim militia inside China has been trained in Pakistan. Be it Uncle Bush or Uncle Obama, they are trying to find an strong ally in India. The international community should put pressure on the elected government to prove its authority. Downsize the ISI, providing the Indians with the wanted criminals they are harbouring, US should ask for usage reports of the F16s and military hardware that they have donated to TSP to fight the war on terror. And unless these things happen and we see the DDG getting some control over matters, sanctions should start on Pakistan
Asserting Intentions/Loyalties
TSP should be asked to declare its policies and success/failures in curtailing the terror outfits within its borders. There should be an international team - probably from UN - monitoring the arrests and outlawing of terror outfits. Every time the TSP outlaws an outfit, it assumes a new name and office, and continues to thrive. Pro-Islam extremists become passive fund-raisers for islamist all around the world - only to re-arm themselves. As we already discussed, there there are four distinct powers operating in TSP, loyalties are dispersed, non-existent. This would make the job very difficult in tracking of any ground results and stern anti-terror initiatives that TSP starts.
Even as a state, TSP has been opportunistic and uncommitted about its friends. It is probably the only country which is so close to China while maintaining an equally good relationship with the US. It gets international monetary and military aid from UK, US, France, Italy, UAE, China and still cribs about them in some manner. The glorious relationship between TSP and China has also been put under the Chinese microscope after findings that the Islamic militia inside China was trained by Pakistan. It is high time TSP comes out loud and clear about its association and friends. As of now the only clear policy they have is their anti-Indian mindset.
Unless they get a hold of themselves and declare their loyalties to the international community, they are going to further lose credibility, not that much of it is still left.
End of the line
UAE, China and IMF from whom TSP has been borrowing a lot of money are now denying further loans. After the recent terror attacks inside TSP hotels hospitals etc, corporates and multinationals are leaving TSP for good. Uncle is increasingly siding with India. Other major economies like Japan, Brazil, South Africa etc wont be investing much in TSP. Only undecided factor is Russia. If for some reason China and Russia decide to support TSP, which I HIGHLY doubt, then there is a fresh lease of life for these A-holes. India should convince other international players for putting new sanctions on TSP. India should prove/convince the UN bodies that the loans given are diverted to purchase of military equipments. The marketing statement of India Inc., should change from "India Shining.." to "Pakistan Stifling..".
Personally, I would like to see the current Anarchy get worse in TSP. It is a state which has failed miserably to its own crooked policies. They started with a negative "anti-India" stance. They took up to train terrorists against India, without understanding the dangers. Now those same elements have an different agenda than their state - they started killing innocent Pakistanis.
Next few weeks would be interesting - like to see if India has the political guts and inclination to for cross border raids.
Monday, December 01, 2008
Slap On The Face
Who other than our Indian politicians. The families of officers who laid down their life for the country, are showing their disgust at the politicians and their meagre "compensation" amounts.
Incident at Unnikrishnan's house..
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=Cricket&id=7a915314-9119-4ad6-b6b7-56383bbcbb2b&&Headline=Kerala+CM+insults+slain+Major
Karkare's family dismisses the monetary help from Gujju CM.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/002200811291543.htm
Nothing more shameful can ever happen to our politicians. This show the amount of frustration and the anguish that Indian public is under. The politicians have exploited this country, swindled billions of rupees, starved the armed forces of money and stifled their modernizations programs, disregarded the poor, bending to the wishes of the west..
This should come as a wake up call for these bl**dy politicians. The families of the martyrs are sending a message that they dont need the condolences and the puny compensation amount that they are providing. They are fed up with this press and the politicians creating a scene and disturbing the already troubled family.
Incident at Unnikrishnan's house..
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=Cricket&id=7a915314-9119-4ad6-b6b7-56383bbcbb2b&&Headline=Kerala+CM+insults+slain+Major
Karkare's family dismisses the monetary help from Gujju CM.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/002200811291543.htm
Nothing more shameful can ever happen to our politicians. This show the amount of frustration and the anguish that Indian public is under. The politicians have exploited this country, swindled billions of rupees, starved the armed forces of money and stifled their modernizations programs, disregarded the poor, bending to the wishes of the west..
This should come as a wake up call for these bl**dy politicians. The families of the martyrs are sending a message that they dont need the condolences and the puny compensation amount that they are providing. They are fed up with this press and the politicians creating a scene and disturbing the already troubled family.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)